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Professor's 2010 NBA Finals Preview




For the eleventh time in NBA history, the Boston Celtics will again face off against the Los Angeles Lakers. The Celtics hold an 8-2 advantage in the series (9-2 if you count when the Lakers were based in Minneapolis), including a 4-2 series victory two years prior in 2008.


THE BACKGROUND

Following the Celtics 17th championship, Boston and L.A. were made the favorites for a rematch in the 2009 Finals but the Celtics broke down during the course of the season, losing Kevin Garnett and showing their age. Los Angeles held up their end of the bargain hoisting # 15 while all the Celtics could do was watch from their discomfort of their  wounded pride and injured bodies. Both teams within the span of two years whispered the disappointing words of, "that could have been ours."

2010 will provide that chance. A win for the Celtics will likely solidify the Hall-of-Fame nominations of Paul Pierce and Ray Allen (Garnett is likely already in) and push Rajon Rondo and Doc Rivers into conversations that they reign atop the league at their current positions. An eighteenth banner in a season which seemed lost just two months ago, would certainly enliven a city that has had the displeasure of watching their hockey team blow a lead of historic proportions as well as a vastly overpaid baseball team underplaying to their ability.

As for the Lakers, a victory over the Celtics would reaffirm their dominance over the league winning back-to-back for the f
irst time since they won three consecutive titles from 2000-2002. 

The win would also push Kobe past former teammate Shaquille O'Neal for titles won as both are currently tied with four. L.A.'s love affair with it's only team to provide a title in over twenty years (apologies to the WNBA's Sparks, but women's basketball doesn't share a massive fan base).


TWO YEARS LATER

For the most part, both rosters look nearly identical with 16 of the 24 active players remaining from the 2008 Finals. So on paper and to the average/casual fan these teams will look very similar to those who met in the 2008 Finals. But in reality, time like always, has changed individuals for better or worse. The teams still play similar styles, both teams based largely around their half-court offense, physical defense and a collection of smart, savvy veterans who shoot high-percentage shots.

As for the C's, the biggest difference is Rajon Rondo. In 2008, Rondo was an up-and-coming streaky guard with no jump-shot. Two years later, he is at times the best in the league as well as the best player on the floor. Paul Pierce, Ray Allen and Kevin Garnett are a step slower but still largely effective. Kendrick Perkins and Glen Davis, who played a collective 18 minutes a game in the 08' Finals, will likely see 18 minutes each per game due to their increased roles.

For the Lakers, Pau Gasol, Derek Fisher and Lamar Odom provide much of the same as they have their entire careers, whereas Kobe Bryant has redefined his game, relying more on a post-game and his jump-shot, all while still being able to get to the rim when he feels it is needed. The biggest alteration in the Lakers roster can be found in "Bad Boy" Ron Artest, one of the league's most physical defenders.

ADVANTAGE BOSTON

1) Rajon Rondo vs. Derek Fisher - Fisher will be taken to lunch, dinner and possibly dessert. No matter how strong the veteran Fisher is, he will not be able to contain the lightning-quick Rondo. Look for a few hard fouls by Fisher (who is known for his elbows) to attempt to slow Rondo down.

2) Ray Allen - To cover Allen, the Lakers will either have to have Kobe expend access energy on the defensive side running through an abundance of screens, or go with a smaller lineup and try to have guys like Shannon Brown and Jordan Farmar chase Allen around. Artest is not a viable option as he is too slow and will be better placed aside Paul Pierce.

3) C's Bench - Tony Allen's D, Glen Davis' hustle, and Rasheed's knack for the big moment. It's unlikely we will see Nate Robinson match his magic from Game 6 of the Orlando series but with his talent, the possibility always remains.


ADVANTAGE L.A.


1) Kobe Factor - Bryant is playing phenomenal basketball right now, scoring nearly 30 points a game on 48% shooting while collecting five rebounds and dishing 6 assists per contest. The Celtics will have to give Kobe a lot of different looks and have their bigs slow down Bryant on the screens. Paul Pierce and Tony Allen will have their hands full.

2) BIG - When Andrew Bynum is healthy, the Lakers frontcourt of Pau Gasol, Bynum, Lamar Odom and/or Ron Artest is a very physical, athletic and attacking bunch who can clog the paint and make life difficult for a Celtics offense who likes to run multiple pick-and-roll sets and predicates its offense on getting the ball inside.

3) Home Advantage - Despite the Celtics uncanny ability to thrive on the road in playoff basketball, the Lakers have been dominant at home in the playoffs, remaining 8-0 with an average margin of home victory of 10.1 PPG. And unlike the 2008 season in which the C's earned home-court by tallying 66 wins on the year, the Lakers were the best in the West at 57-25.


Series begins Thursday night in L.A, who do you like?

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